Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.99 – 114.26

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.5 ±10.4

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 24.28Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 27.08Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 36.63Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.8 ±10.5

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 69.95Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 17.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 26.86Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11377, 3229, 11417

/ 100 compat

Projected

88 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11377, 3229, 11417

Auto

27.2 30%

Teleop

42.7 47%

Endgame

21.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8727, 6639, 10107

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8727, 6639, 10107

Auto

28.5 24%

Teleop

70.9 59%

Endgame

21.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88pts

Blue projected score114.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.3
Score range: 72–130
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 87.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.5Season APEX332.8

27.2Auto28.5

42.7Teleop70.9

21.8Endgame21.1

20Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	13	137
endgame	22	32
foul	0	15
total	51	201

Result

Final score

51 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 61.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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