Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.46 – 96.77

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 81.6 ±12.2

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 24.15Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX -9.47Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6932SMART

Season APEX 8.2Event APEX 12.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.7 ±10.5

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 0.74Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 92.53Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 3.5Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3196, 9762, 6932

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3196, 9762, 6932

Auto

17.7 69%

Teleop

-3.9 0%

Endgame

11.7 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10704, 2724, 10077

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10704, 2724, 10077

Auto

31.6 31%

Teleop

48.9 48%

Endgame

21.7 21%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score27.5pts

Blue projected score96.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.3
Score range: 11–113
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 86.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

81.6Season APEX330.7

17.7Auto31.6

-3.9Teleop48.9

11.7Endgame21.7

129Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	36
teleop	8	111
endgame	11	30
foul	0	0
total	45	177

Result

Final score

45 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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