Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.1 – 115.68

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±10.5

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 19.05Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 28.14Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 20.91Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±11.7

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 95.82Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 25.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX -5.82Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7763, 1225, 9298

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7763, 1225, 9298

Auto

12.0 19%

Teleop

45.0 70%

Endgame

7.0 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1533, 5727, 10583

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1533, 5727, 10583

Auto

20.3 18%

Teleop

73.8 65%

Endgame

19.3 17%

Strengths

· 1533 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.1pts

Blue projected score115.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.6
Score range: 53–131
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 85.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.4Season APEX217.6

12Auto20.3

45Teleop73.8

7Endgame19.3

99Consistency177

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	24
teleop	30	100
endgame	13	32
foul	5	5
total	65	161

Result

Final score

65 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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