Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.73 – 72.05

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 130 ±11.6

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX -0.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 41.73Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 3.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.2 ±11

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 47.17Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 30.94Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -6.06Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3680, 7918, 9607

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3680, 7918, 9607

Auto

18.4 42%

Teleop

24.2 55%

Endgame

1.5 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2682, 9150, 10304

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2682, 9150, 10304

Auto

12.3 20%

Teleop

29.1 47%

Endgame

21.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.7pts

Blue projected score72.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.3
Score range: 30–87
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 84.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

130Season APEX256.2

18.4Auto12.3

24.2Teleop29.1

1.5Endgame21.1

112Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	16	26
endgame	17	19
foul	5	0
total	55	60

Result

Final score

55 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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