Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.62 – 29.72

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

57 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143 ±11

7918ReCuRsIoN

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 35.41Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -11.28Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX -8.51Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.5 ±11.7

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 13.41Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 3.28Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 13.03Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7918, 10077, 9762

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7918, 10077, 9762

Auto

14.5 92%

Teleop

3.4 22%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5518, 10304, 7763

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5518, 10304, 7763

Auto

1.6 5%

Teleop

16.6 49%

Endgame

15.9 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15.6pts

Blue projected score29.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.1
Score range: 1–45
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 82.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143Season APEX209.5

14.5Auto1.6

3.4Teleop16.6

-2.2Endgame15.9

156Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	4
teleop	27	8
endgame	17	13
foul	0	0
total	57	25

Result

Final score

57 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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