Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.34 – 99.8

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 122.4 ±12.1

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 37.22Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5727Omegabytes

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 30.53Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10107ThunderBirdz

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 35.59Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.2 ±10.5

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -6.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 74.17Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 31.99Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6908, 5727, 10107

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6908, 5727, 10107

Auto

26.2 27%

Teleop

51.4 52%

Endgame

21.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9607, 2724, 11417

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9607, 2724, 11417

Auto

38.9 38%

Teleop

44.5 43%

Endgame

20.1 19%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.3pts

Blue projected score99.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.5
Score range: 86–117
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 79.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

122.4Season APEX425.2

26.2Auto38.9

51.4Teleop44.5

21Endgame20.1

65Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	46
teleop	37	95
endgame	17	28
foul	5	0
total	75	169

Result

Final score

75 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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