Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

47.83 – 32.48

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.4 ±11.7

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX -2.41Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 35.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 14.68Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100.4 ±12.2

3680Elemental Dragons

Season APEX 26Event APEX 3.6Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 37.31Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX -8.43Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4828, 2682, 9605

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4828, 2682, 9605

Auto

7.7 20%

Teleop

28.2 74%

Endgame

2.2 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3680, 11377, 10583

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3680, 11377, 10583

Auto

26.1 68%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

12.5 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score32.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.4
Score range: 18–62
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 79.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.4Season APEX100.4

7.7Auto26.1

28.2Teleop0

2.2Endgame12.5

119Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	16
teleop	73	14
endgame	35	6
foul	45	0
total	177	36

Result

Final score

177 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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