Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.14 – 97.73

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±12.2

5518Techno Wolves

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 19.85Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11417Nano Knights

Season APEX 166.1Event APEX 31.46Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 17.83Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.9 ±10.5

6908Infuzed

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 15.56Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 62.68Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3196Team SPORK

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 19.49Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5518, 11417, 9762

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5518, 11417, 9762

Auto

11.1 19%

Teleop

24.0 41%

Endgame

23.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6908, 1533, 3196

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6908, 1533, 3196

Auto

27.4 28%

Teleop

38.8 40%

Endgame

30.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.1pts

Blue projected score97.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.6
Score range: 55–112
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 77.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.5Season APEX242.9

11.1Auto27.4

24Teleop38.8

23.6Endgame30.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	36
teleop	8	69
endgame	12	40
foul	0	15
total	35	160

Result

Final score

35 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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