Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.7 – 65.48

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.3 ±10.7

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 1.45Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 24.78Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 52.47Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 116 ±12.2

9605Creek Commanders

Season APEX 38.1Event APEX 15.77Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 1.37Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 48.34Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10583, 7763, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10583, 7763, 6639

Auto

17.7 25%

Teleop

38.3 53%

Endgame

16.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9605, 9607, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9605, 9607, 11377

Auto

27.3 45%

Teleop

20.3 33%

Endgame

13.6 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.7pts

Blue projected score65.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.2
Score range: 50–94
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 81.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.3Season APEX116

17.7Auto27.3

38.3Teleop20.3

16Endgame13.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	17
teleop	22	23
endgame	10	1
foul	0	5
total	39	46

Result

Final score

39 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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