Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.77 – 138.28

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 42 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.8 ±9.8

9150Labyrinth Robotics

Season APEX 62.2Event APEX 32.29Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3229Hawktimus Prime

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 26.77Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 69.71Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.7 ±9.8

1225The Gorillas

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 50.49Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 65.83Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4828RoboEagles

Season APEX 82.4Event APEX 21.96Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9150, 3229, 2724

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9150, 3229, 2724

Auto

33.4 26%

Teleop

56.2 44%

Endgame

37.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1225, 7890, 4828

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1225, 7890, 4828

Auto

21.7 16%

Teleop

81.9 60%

Endgame

32.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.8pts

Blue projected score138.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.5
Score range: 114–153
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 80.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.8Season APEX337.7

33.4Auto21.7

56.2Teleop81.9

37.3Endgame32.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	15
teleop	46	38
endgame	28	18
foul	0	0
total	112	71

Result

Final score

112 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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