Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
49.59 – 48.26
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
34 – 96
Prediction missed · off by 31.7 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.4 ±11
Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 35.44Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 26Event APEX 3.73Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 10.42Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.4 ±11
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 32.66Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 16.06Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.7Event APEX -0.46Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2682, 3680, 10077
52
/ 100 compatProjected
49.6 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 2682, 3680, 10077
Auto
13.8 26%
Teleop
31.6 59%
Endgame
8.5 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8727, 6888, 10704
42
/ 100 compatProjected
48.3 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 8727, 6888, 10704
Auto
14.4 29%
Teleop
36.9 74%
Endgame
-1.2 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 23%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score49.6pts
Blue projected score48.3pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 23%, blue 27%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 1.3
- Score range
- 33–65
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
224.4Season APEX197.4
13.8Auto14.4
31.6Teleop36.9
8.5Endgame-1.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 15 |
| teleop | 14 | 63 |
| endgame | 6 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 34 | 96 |
Result
Final score
34 – 96
Prediction missed · off by 31.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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