Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 100.52

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 85.8 ±12.1

9298Greenies

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX -11.7Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX -6.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10304Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX -1.45Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.4 ±9.3

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 37.29Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 37.29Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11377Knightmare Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 25.94Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9298, 9607, 10304

/ 100 compat

Projected

-19.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9298, 9607, 10304

Auto

5.7 0%

Teleop

-27.1 100%

Endgame

6.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6639, 1533, 11377

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6639, 1533, 11377

Auto

27.3 27%

Teleop

48.5 48%

Endgame

25.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-19.9pts

Blue projected score100.5pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.5
Score range: -14–115
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 80.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

85.8Season APEX389.4

5.7Auto27.3

-27.1Teleop48.5

6.5Endgame25.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	42
teleop	13	88
endgame	2	40
foul	0	0
total	30	170

Result

Final score

30 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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