Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.22 – 106.84

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 43 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.7 ±12.2

10583Stampede

Season APEX 17.1Event APEX 9.17Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10704Storm Surge

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 20.54Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2682Boneyard Robotics 2682

Season APEX 153.9Event APEX 29.51Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.1 ±11.6

9607RJR Cyber Demons

Season APEX 20.6Event APEX 4.25Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9762Raccoon Robotics

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 15.99Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 86.6Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10583, 10704, 2682

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10583, 10704, 2682

Auto

14.7 25%

Teleop

33.7 58%

Endgame

10.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9607, 9762, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9607, 9762, 8727

Auto

23.1 23%

Teleop

55.0 54%

Endgame

23.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.2pts

Blue projected score106.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.6
Score range: 40–126
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 103.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.7Season APEX142.1

14.7Auto23.1

33.7Teleop55

10Endgame23.4

19Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	18
teleop	20	25
endgame	4	3
foul	0	0
total	34	46

Result

Final score

34 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 43 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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