Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.84 – 152.47

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

216 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440 ±9.3

10077The H.E.I.S.T.

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 2.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2724Avalanche Robotics

Season APEX 238.5Event APEX 134.56Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 84.47Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.6 ±9.3

7763Carrborobotics

Season APEX 123.1Event APEX 8.29Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7890SeQuEnCe

Season APEX 178.1Event APEX 63.69Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8727Glitch 2.0

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 80.49Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10077, 2724, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10077, 2724, 1533

Auto

58.0 27%

Teleop

112.9 52%

Endgame

47.0 22%

Strengths

· 2724 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7763, 7890, 8727

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7763, 7890, 8727

Auto

20.3 13%

Teleop

89.8 59%

Endgame

41.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.8pts

Blue projected score152.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.4
Score range: 134–240
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 101.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440Season APEX407.6

58Auto20.3

112.9Teleop89.8

47Endgame41.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	21
teleop	78	97
endgame	41	68
foul	40	35
total	216	221

Result

Final score

216 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 37.2 pts

Match videos

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