Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
177.88 – 190.89
46%54%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
149 – 135
Prediction missed · off by 42.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.1 ±17.3
Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 77.59Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 23.06Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 77.23Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273 ±16.5
9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC
Provisional
Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 45.73Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 73.91Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 71.25Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2283, 4735, 3527
74
/ 100 compatProjected
177.9 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 2283, 4735, 3527
Auto
33.4 20%
Teleop
94.8 57%
Endgame
39.2 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9499, 3526, 7725
77
/ 100 compatProjected
190.9 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 9499, 3526, 7725
Auto
31.9 17%
Teleop
104.7 57%
Endgame
47.9 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score177.9pts
Blue projected score190.9pts
Red win probability46%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -13
- Score range
- 153–216
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
202.1Season APEX273
33.4Auto31.9
94.8Teleop104.7
39.2Endgame47.9
37Consistency47
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 28 |
| teleop | 67 | 85 |
| endgame | 29 | 22 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 149 | 135 |
Result
Final score
149 – 135
Prediction missed · off by 42.4 pts
Match videos
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