Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
326.84 – 289.21
61%39%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
273 – 131
Prediction correct · off by 106 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.4 ±13.5
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 34Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 146.06Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 146.78Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±14.6
Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 28.81Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 132.99Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 127.41Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8290, 4403, 5948
78
/ 100 compatProjected
326.8 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 8290, 4403, 5948
Auto
56.9 18%
Teleop
200.7 64%
Endgame
55.9 18%
Strengths
- · 5948 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9513, 9301, 3158
79
/ 100 compatProjected
289.2 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 9513, 9301, 3158
Auto
37.2 13%
Teleop
174.0 61%
Endgame
75.2 26%
Strengths
- · 9301 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score326.8pts
Blue projected score289.2pts
Red win probability61%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 37.6
- Score range
- 264–352
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
626.4Season APEX344.4
56.9Auto37.2
200.7Teleop174
55.9Endgame75.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 52 |
| teleop | 156 | 50 |
| endgame | 37 | 29 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 273 | 131 |
Result
Final score
273 – 131
Prediction correct · off by 106 pts
Match videos
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