Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
386.27 – 172.83
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
502 – 200
Prediction correct · off by 71.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 784 ±11.2
Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 11.74Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 186.1Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 188.43Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.1 ±17.3
Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 75.06Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 22.21Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 75.56Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11304, 6647, 4400
77
/ 100 compatProjected
386.3 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 11304, 6647, 4400
Auto
49.7 13%
Teleop
244.7 66%
Endgame
78.4 21%
Strengths
- · 4400 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2283, 4735, 3527
73
/ 100 compatProjected
172.8 pts
~0.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 2283, 4735, 3527
Auto
32.1 20%
Teleop
90.9 56%
Endgame
40.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score386.3pts
Blue projected score172.8pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 213.4
- Score range
- 148–411
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
784Season APEX202.1
49.7Auto32.1
244.7Teleop90.9
78.4Endgame40.5
0Consistency31
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 29 | 38 |
| teleop | 285 | 109 |
| endgame | 188 | 38 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 502 | 200 |
Result
Final score
502 – 200
Prediction correct · off by 71.5 pts
Match videos
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