Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.09 – 183.03

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±19.1

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 16.01Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11380CECYBOTS - Peñoles

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 10.78Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 20.3Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.6 ±13.9

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 40.99Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 72.52Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 69.52Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11351, 11380, 4355

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11351, 11380, 4355

Auto

5.6 14%

Teleop

29.7 72%

Endgame

5.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4731, 3526, 7725

/ 100 compat

Projected

183 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4731, 3526, 7725

Auto

38.2 21%

Teleop

104.8 58%

Endgame

37.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.1pts

Blue projected score183pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -135.9
Score range: 22–208
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 137.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185Season APEX282.6

5.6Auto38.2

29.7Teleop104.8

5.9Endgame37.9

10Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	39
teleop	16	83
endgame	5	34
foul	0	40
total	31	196

Result

Final score

31 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 14.5 pts

Match videos

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