Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.29 – 202.77

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.4 ±17.7

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 10.97Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 22.53Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9120Silverbot - Fresnillo PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 22.79Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±15.3

5716PrepaTec - Keybot

Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 83.13Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 11.09Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 108.55Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5705, 6199, 9120

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5705, 6199, 9120

Auto

15.4 32%

Teleop

25.5 53%

Endgame

7.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5716, 5526, 9134

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5716, 5526, 9134

Auto

29.7 15%

Teleop

111.5 57%

Endgame

56.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.3pts

Blue projected score202.8pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.5
Score range: 31–228
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 137.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.4Season APEX320.8

15.4Auto29.7

25.5Teleop111.5

7.6Endgame56

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	37
teleop	8	100
endgame	4	39
foul	0	5
total	26	181

Result

Final score

26 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Match videos

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