Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.07 – 189.46

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±14.6

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 24.6Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 128.11Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 122.36Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.6 ±13.9

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 43.2Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 74.46Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 71.8Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9513, 9301, 3158

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9513, 9301, 3158

Auto

37.8 14%

Teleop

171.3 63%

Endgame

62.9 23%

Strengths

· 9301 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4731, 3526, 7725

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4731, 3526, 7725

Auto

33.5 18%

Teleop

116.4 62%

Endgame

36.8 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score275.1pts

Blue projected score189.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.6
Score range: 165–299
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 136.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.4Season APEX282.6

37.8Auto33.5

171.3Teleop116.4

62.9Endgame36.8

16Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	53
teleop	184	67
endgame	115	38
foul	0	0
total	334	158

Result

Final score

334 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Match videos

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