Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
299.17 – 51.01
96%4%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
429 – 39
Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.4 ±13.5
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 23.06Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 137.72Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 138.39Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±19.1
Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 21.61Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 13.51Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 15.89Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8290, 4403, 5948
79
/ 100 compatProjected
299.2 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 8290, 4403, 5948
Auto
54.0 19%
Teleop
177.6 62%
Endgame
53.1 19%
Strengths
- · 5948 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4355, 11380, 11351
24
/ 100 compatProjected
51 pts
~0.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4355, 11380, 11351
Auto
4.4 10%
Teleop
35.8 82%
Endgame
3.2 7%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.57
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score299.2pts
Blue projected score51pts
Red win probability96%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 248.2
- Score range
- 27–323
- Upset likelihood
- 4%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
626.4Season APEX185
54Auto4.4
177.6Teleop35.8
53.1Endgame3.2
21Consistency8
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 68 | 10 |
| teleop | 276 | 14 |
| endgame | 75 | 15 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 429 | 39 |
Result
Final score
429 – 39
Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts
Match videos
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