Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
200.7 – 155.99
64%36%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
201 – 224
Prediction missed · off by 34.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±15.3
Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 81.8Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 10.83Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 108.07Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.1 ±17.3
Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 69.12Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 16.13Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 70.74Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5716, 5526, 9134
80
/ 100 compatProjected
200.7 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 5716, 5526, 9134
Auto
28.6 15%
Teleop
111.3 58%
Endgame
53.6 28%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2283, 4735, 3527
70
/ 100 compatProjected
156 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 2283, 4735, 3527
Auto
29.7 20%
Teleop
75.8 52%
Endgame
41.6 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.18
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score200.7pts
Blue projected score156pts
Red win probability64%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 44.7
- Score range
- 132–225
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
320.8Season APEX202.1
28.6Auto29.7
111.3Teleop75.8
53.6Endgame41.6
7Consistency36
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 35 | 41 |
| teleop | 102 | 134 |
| endgame | 64 | 39 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 201 | 224 |
Result
Final score
201 – 224
Prediction missed · off by 34.2 pts
Match videos
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