Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.53 – 235.87

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 80.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.4 ±13.5

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 25.1Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 141.2Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 144.23Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±14.6

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 10.52Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 115.41Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 109.94Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8290, 4403, 5948

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8290, 4403, 5948

Auto

59.4 20%

Teleop

188.6 63%

Endgame

49.5 17%

Strengths

· 5948 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9513, 9301, 3158

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9513, 9301, 3158

Auto

39.5 17%

Teleop

136.3 59%

Endgame

55.1 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score310.5pts

Blue projected score235.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.7
Score range: 210–337
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626.4Season APEX344.4

59.4Auto39.5

188.6Teleop136.3

49.5Endgame55.1

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	26
teleop	183	36
endgame	42	47
foul	10	0
total	277	109

Result

Final score

277 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 80.2 pts

Match videos

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