Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
240.3 – 175.6
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
206 – 110
Prediction correct · off by 50 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±14.6
Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 11.87Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 116.62Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 111.81Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.1 ±17.3
Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 76.79Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 22.58Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 76.23Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9513, 9301, 3158
80
/ 100 compatProjected
240.3 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 9513, 9301, 3158
Auto
38.6 16%
Teleop
139.5 59%
Endgame
57.2 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2283, 4735, 3527
73
/ 100 compatProjected
175.6 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 2283, 4735, 3527
Auto
35.1 21%
Teleop
91.9 56%
Endgame
38.2 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.07
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score240.3pts
Blue projected score175.6pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 64.7
- Score range
- 151–265
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
344.4Season APEX202.1
38.6Auto35.1
139.5Teleop91.9
57.2Endgame38.2
0Consistency44
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 45 | 42 |
| teleop | 115 | 56 |
| endgame | 41 | 7 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 206 | 110 |
Result
Final score
206 – 110
Prediction correct · off by 50 pts
Match videos
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