Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
408.38 – 317.93
76%24%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
336 – 265
Prediction correct · off by 62.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 784 ±11.2
Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 19.11Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 192.53Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 196.74Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.4 ±13.5
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 28.29Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 143.29Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 146.35Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11304, 6647, 4400
78
/ 100 compatProjected
408.4 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 11304, 6647, 4400
Auto
45.6 11%
Teleop
252.9 64%
Endgame
99.2 25%
Strengths
- · 4400 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8290, 4403, 5948
78
/ 100 compatProjected
317.9 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 8290, 4403, 5948
Auto
57.6 19%
Teleop
193.1 64%
Endgame
52.8 17%
Strengths
- · 5948 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score408.4pts
Blue projected score317.9pts
Red win probability76%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 90.4
- Score range
- 293–433
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
784Season APEX626.4
45.6Auto57.6
252.9Teleop193.1
99.2Endgame52.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 23 | 69 |
| teleop | 174 | 159 |
| endgame | 119 | 32 |
| foul | 20 | 5 |
| total | 336 | 265 |
Result
Final score
336 – 265
Prediction correct · off by 62.7 pts
Match videos
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