Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
259.73 – 198.25
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
135 – 104
Prediction correct · off by 109.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±14.6
Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 19Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 123.05Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 117.68Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±15.3
Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 80.45Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 10.43Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 107.37Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9513, 9301, 3158
80
/ 100 compatProjected
259.7 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 9513, 9301, 3158
Auto
39.9 15%
Teleop
151.0 59%
Endgame
66.6 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5716, 5526, 9134
77
/ 100 compatProjected
198.3 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 5716, 5526, 9134
Auto
31.1 16%
Teleop
109.8 57%
Endgame
52.1 27%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.19
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score259.7pts
Blue projected score198.3pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 61.5
- Score range
- 173–285
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
344.4Season APEX320.8
39.9Auto31.1
151Teleop109.8
66.6Endgame52.1
0Consistency5
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 36 |
| teleop | 77 | 49 |
| endgame | 6 | 14 |
| foul | 20 | 5 |
| total | 135 | 104 |
Result
Final score
135 – 104
Prediction correct · off by 109.5 pts
Match videos
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