Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

2.94 – 79.74

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±18.8

6483Prepa Tecmilenio - CHARGER

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 12.6Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX -1.15Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10562STEAMex Scorpions

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX -8.51Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.5 ±15.1

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 22.71Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 48.05Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 8.98Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6483, 11304, 10562

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6483, 11304, 10562

Auto

6.9 0%

Teleop

-5.1 100%

Endgame

-5.5 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4735, 4731, 5526

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4735, 4731, 5526

Auto

15.3 23%

Teleop

23.4 35%

Endgame

27.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score2.9pts

Blue projected score79.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.8
Score range: -20–103
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.3Season APEX204.5

6.9Auto15.3

-5.1Teleop23.4

-5.5Endgame27.5

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	12	39
endgame	3	10
foul	0	0
total	33	61

Result

Final score

33 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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