Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.4 – 119.12

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.7 ±17.5

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX -Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2283Panteras

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 81.14Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.1 ±20.2

9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 80.86Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7653Minebots 7653 - Fresnillo PLC -CECyTE 18 Ciénega

Provisional

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6608, 3526, 2283

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6608, 3526, 2283

Auto

27.2 23%

Teleop

65.4 55%

Endgame

26.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9499, 6199, 7653

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9499, 6199, 7653

Auto

22.3 19%

Teleop

72.0 60%

Endgame

24.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.4pts

Blue projected score119.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.3
Score range: 98–140
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.7Season APEX182.1

15.7Auto10.9

46.3Teleop52.9

19.1Endgame17.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	13
teleop	72	14
endgame	44	20
foul	0	0
total	147	47

Result

Final score

147 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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