Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.28 – 58.02

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250 ±17.5

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 34.68Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 27.55Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 82.05Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.9 ±18.1

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 42.48Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 1.57Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11380CECYBOTS - Peñoles

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 13.97Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4355, 11351, 7725

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4355, 11351, 7725

Auto

15.3 11%

Teleop

90.7 66%

Endgame

31.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4603, 5874, 11380

/ 100 compat

Projected

58 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4603, 5874, 11380

Auto

18.2 33%

Teleop

27.2 49%

Endgame

10.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144.3pts

Blue projected score58pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.3
Score range: 34–168
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 72 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250Season APEX176.9

15.3Auto18.2

90.7Teleop27.2

31.1Endgame10.6

3Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	9	27
endgame	1	4
foul	0	0
total	26	46

Result

Final score

26 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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