Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.28 – 204.71

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.4 ±16.2

8291Golden Yellow Experience - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 28.08Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 136.94Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 23.26Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.8 ±15.3

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 3.58Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 16.43Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 184.7Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8291, 4403, 8290

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8291, 4403, 8290

Auto

37.9 21%

Teleop

105.6 59%

Endgame

35.2 20%

Strengths

· 4403 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6608, 5526, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6608, 5526, 6647

Auto

22.7 12%

Teleop

128.1 65%

Endgame

46.4 24%

Strengths

· 6647 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score188.3pts

Blue projected score204.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.4
Score range: 164–229
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 132.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.4Season APEX377.8

37.9Auto22.7

105.6Teleop128.1

35.2Endgame46.4

42Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	38
teleop	84	66
endgame	20	57
foul	60	5
total	204	166

Result

Final score

204 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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