Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.14 – 63.22

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.9 ±19.6

11031Golden STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 8.01Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 29.24Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5716PrepaTec - Keybot

Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 83.89Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.6 ±17.5

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 5.64Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 16.88Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5312Lobotics - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 40.7Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11031, 6199, 5716

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11031, 6199, 5716

Auto

19.2 16%

Teleop

67.6 58%

Endgame

30.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11304, 4735, 5312

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11304, 4735, 5312

Auto

10.5 20%

Teleop

19.7 38%

Endgame

21.1 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.1pts

Blue projected score63.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.9
Score range: 39–145
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.9Season APEX344.6

19.2Auto10.5

67.6Teleop19.7

30.1Endgame21.1

2Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	15
teleop	46	29
endgame	22	19
foul	10	0
total	97	63

Result

Final score

97 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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