Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.26 – 203.43

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.2 ±18.4

7577VELABOTS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 20.48Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 124.45Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9120Silverbot - Fresnillo PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 24.33Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.6 ±17.5

10562STEAMex Scorpions

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 6.7Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 127.58Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2283Panteras

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 69.15Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7577, 3158, 9120

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7577, 3158, 9120

Auto

34.5 20%

Teleop

103.3 60%

Endgame

34.9 20%

Strengths

· 3158 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10562, 9301, 2283

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10562, 9301, 2283

Auto

34.2 16%

Teleop

123.4 60%

Endgame

49.7 24%

Strengths

· 9301 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169.3pts

Blue projected score203.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.2
Score range: 145–227
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 132.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.2Season APEX276.6

34.5Auto34.2

103.3Teleop123.4

34.9Endgame49.7

17Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	38
teleop	64	161
endgame	44	19
foul	5	0
total	143	218

Result

Final score

143 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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