Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.22 – 164.56

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±15.6

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 168.01Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC

Provisional

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -4.05Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 41.26Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.8 ±17.5

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 136.43Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7653Minebots 7653 - Fresnillo PLC -CECyTE 18 Ciénega

Provisional

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 2.79Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 25.34Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4400, 7037, 4731

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 7037, 4731

Auto

34.4 17%

Teleop

119.7 60%

Endgame

43.9 22%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5948, 7653, 9513

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5948, 7653, 9513

Auto

20.5 12%

Teleop

114.8 70%

Endgame

29.4 18%

Strengths

· 5948 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.2pts

Blue projected score164.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 141–229
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 130.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.4Season APEX457.8

34.4Auto20.5

119.7Teleop114.8

43.9Endgame29.4

22Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	51
teleop	130	94
endgame	81	47
foul	15	5
total	270	197

Result

Final score

270 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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