Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.95 – 136.52

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.1 ±20.8

7687Corcebots - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 3.15Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8266Owlbot - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 12.4Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 12.4Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±18

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 67.76Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 41.48Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 27.28Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7687, 8266, 11040

/ 100 compat

Projected

28 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7687, 8266, 11040

Auto

15.3 60%

Teleop

-0.5 0%

Endgame

10.6 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3527, 9499, 9593

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3527, 9499, 9593

Auto

21.1 16%

Teleop

65.0 50%

Endgame

43.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score28pts

Blue projected score136.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.6
Score range: 4–161
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 131.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.1Season APEX188.7

15.3Auto21.1

-0.5Teleop65

10.6Endgame43.3

32Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	19
teleop	13	81
endgame	0	51
foul	5	0
total	37	151

Result

Final score

37 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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