Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.47 – 187.57

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 87.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.3 ±18.1

4977Iron Lion

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 22.65Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 26.98Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 70.84Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489 ±12.2

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 64.92Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 121.31Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 1.34Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4977, 11351, 3526

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4977, 11351, 3526

Auto

24.9 21%

Teleop

68.7 57%

Endgame

27.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7725, 4403, 5705

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7725, 4403, 5705

Auto

48.3 27%

Teleop

111.5 62%

Endgame

21.2 12%

Strengths

· 4403 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.5pts

Blue projected score187.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.1
Score range: 97–211
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 129.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.3Season APEX489

24.9Auto48.3

68.7Teleop111.5

27.6Endgame21.2

58Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	52
teleop	79	230
endgame	25	57
foul	10	15
total	129	354

Result

Final score

129 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 87.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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