Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.39 – 42.91

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230 ±19.6

11380CECYBOTS - Peñoles

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 11.72Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5716PrepaTec - Keybot

Season APEX 122.5Event APEX 84.55Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5312Lobotics - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 38.12Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 114.6 ±20.8

4401CETMOV - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 24.53Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX -7.54Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8291Golden Yellow Experience - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 25.92Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11380, 5716, 5312

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11380, 5716, 5312

Auto

15.1 12%

Teleop

78.3 62%

Endgame

33.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4401, 7018, 8291

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4401, 7018, 8291

Auto

12.7 32%

Teleop

10.9 27%

Endgame

16.6 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.4pts

Blue projected score42.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.5
Score range: 20–157
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230Season APEX114.6

15.1Auto12.7

78.3Teleop10.9

33.5Endgame16.6

16Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	13
teleop	85	20
endgame	45	29
foul	0	10
total	153	72

Result

Final score

153 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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