Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

36.86 – 32.68

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 117 ±20.8

7577VELABOTS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 23.54Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 1.71Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8293Prepa Tecmilenio - Startech

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 11.61Rank 40Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 138.9 ±20.2

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 27.09Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -0.92Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

10562STEAMex Scorpions

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX 6.51Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7577, 5874, 8293

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7577, 5874, 8293

Auto

15.7 36%

Teleop

10.3 24%

Endgame

17.6 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6199, 6608, 10562

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6199, 6608, 10562

Auto

9.6 35%

Teleop

13.4 49%

Endgame

4.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.9pts

Blue projected score32.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.2
Score range: 9–61
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

117Season APEX138.9

15.7Auto9.6

10.3Teleop13.4

17.6Endgame4.5

20Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	15	23
endgame	5	16
foul	0	10
total	29	62

Result

Final score

29 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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