Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.24 – 129.4

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.3 ±16.4

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 99.01Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 17.76Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 35.47Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±18.5

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 26.63Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

9120Silverbot - Fresnillo PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 70Event APEX 26.48Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2283Panteras

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 76.29Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9134, 4735, 4355

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9134, 4735, 4355

Auto

21.8 16%

Teleop

80.3 58%

Endgame

35.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9513, 9120, 2283

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9513, 9120, 2283

Auto

32.6 25%

Teleop

73.7 56%

Endgame

25.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.2pts

Blue projected score129.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.8
Score range: 105–176
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 131.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.3Season APEX214.8

21.8Auto32.6

80.3Teleop73.7

35.7Endgame25.7

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	83	70
endgame	40	27
foul	25	0
total	164	118

Result

Final score

164 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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