Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.6 – 308.69

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.4 ±18.8

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 9.53Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 6.69Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 42.38Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.9 ±13.3

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 127.33Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 42.28Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5948PrepaTec - Lebotics

Season APEX 338.5Event APEX 139.08Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11040, 8105, 4603

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11040, 8105, 4603

Auto

7.6 15%

Teleop

21.6 42%

Endgame

22.8 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3158, 4731, 5948

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3158, 4731, 5948

Auto

44.3 15%

Teleop

186.1 61%

Endgame

73.4 24%

Strengths

· 5948 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.4 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.6pts

Blue projected score308.7pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -250.1
Score range: 36–332
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.4Season APEX568.9

7.6Auto44.3

21.6Teleop186.1

22.8Endgame73.4

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	31
teleop	32	216
endgame	35	57
foul	0	0
total	90	304

Result

Final score

90 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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