Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.72 – 204.13

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.7 ±17.5

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 7.31Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 58.39Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6896CABOTS - Fresnillo PLC - Conalep Caborca

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 2.02Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.8 ±14.1

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 20.85Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 161.83Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 21.45Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5526, 3527, 6896

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5526, 3527, 6896

Auto

18.4 29%

Teleop

26.2 41%

Endgame

18.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9593, 4400, 8290

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9593, 4400, 8290

Auto

40.2 20%

Teleop

121.3 61%

Endgame

38.0 19%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67.7pts

Blue projected score204.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.4
Score range: 45–227
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 128.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.7Season APEX366.8

18.4Auto40.2

26.2Teleop121.3

18.9Endgame38

37Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	51
teleop	92	161
endgame	54	57
foul	10	0
total	168	269

Result

Final score

168 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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