Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.33 – 112.13

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.1 ±17.7

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 187.26Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6483Prepa Tecmilenio - CHARGER

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 13.57Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 41.5Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.3 ±16.5

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 122.32Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11304Meowbotics - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 246.2Event APEX 3.47Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC

Provisional

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -13.66Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6647, 6483, 9499

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6647, 6483, 9499

Auto

24.9 10%

Teleop

149.1 61%

Endgame

68.7 28%

Strengths

· 6647 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9301, 11304, 7037

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9301, 11304, 7037

Auto

16.2 15%

Teleop

62.5 59%

Endgame

26.4 25%

Strengths

· 9301 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score242.3pts

Blue projected score112.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.2
Score range: 89–265
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 127.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.1Season APEX424.3

24.9Auto16.2

149.1Teleop62.5

68.7Endgame26.4

26Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	137	103
endgame	59	42
foul	35	15
total	259	183

Result

Final score

259 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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