Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.76 – 47.8

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

51 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 7.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 145.6 ±20.8

4401CETMOV - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 20.74Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11031Golden STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 10.38Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7687Corcebots - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 6.64Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.7 ±20.8

7653Minebots 7653 - Fresnillo PLC -CECyTE 18 Ciénega

Provisional

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 5.05Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4977Iron Lion

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 27.75Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8266Owlbot - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 15Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4401, 11031, 7687

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4401, 11031, 7687

Auto

17.9 42%

Teleop

16.4 39%

Endgame

8.0 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7653, 4977, 8266

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7653, 4977, 8266

Auto

14.7 31%

Teleop

17.8 37%

Endgame

15.6 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score37.8pts

Blue projected score47.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10
Score range: 15–71
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

145.6Season APEX141.7

17.9Auto14.7

16.4Teleop17.8

8Endgame15.6

40Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	30	17
endgame	4	22
foul	0	0
total	51	50

Result

Final score

51 – 50

Prediction missed · off by 7.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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