Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 140.11

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.2 ±18.4

5705DESERT EAGLES - JOHN DEERE

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 2.36Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7018EOLOTICS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 10Event APEX -11.94Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8293Prepa Tecmilenio - Startech

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 8.68Rank 40Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.2 ±19.1

5312Lobotics - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 37.73Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 27.47Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2283Panteras

Season APEX 88.1Event APEX 74.91Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5705, 7018, 8293

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5705, 7018, 8293

Auto

5.0 100%

Teleop

-15.7 0%

Endgame

12.2 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5312, 11351, 2283

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5312, 11351, 2283

Auto

25.3 18%

Teleop

73.4 52%

Endgame

41.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-0.9pts

Blue projected score140.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.1
Score range: -23–163
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.2Season APEX195.2

5Auto25.3

-15.7Teleop73.4

12.2Endgame41.4

4Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	23
teleop	3	103
endgame	4	34
foul	5	0
total	30	160

Result

Final score

30 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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