Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.53 – 144.75

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.8 ±18.8

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 44.25Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5874Prepa Tecmilenio BorderBots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 5.88Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6608Prepa Tecmilenio - ARCADIA

Provisional

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 4.4Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±17.1

6199E-Hawks - Peñoles

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 30.3Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11380CECYBOTS - Peñoles

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 13.12Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9134Tecmilenio - DEVOLT

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 101.33Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4731, 5874, 6608

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4731, 5874, 6608

Auto

15.7 30%

Teleop

25.0 48%

Endgame

11.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6199, 11380, 9134

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6199, 11380, 9134

Auto

13.8 10%

Teleop

101.3 72%

Endgame

25.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.5pts

Blue projected score144.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.2
Score range: 32–168
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 129.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.8Season APEX231.6

15.7Auto13.8

25Teleop101.3

11.2Endgame25

70Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	0	60
endgame	1	17
foul	5	45
total	20	143

Result

Final score

20 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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