Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.43 – 135.97

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 5.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.8 ±19.1

11351LYNTECH - Fresnillo PLC

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 12.7Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7577VELABOTS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 17.74Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 73.99Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.2 ±17.7

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 21.34Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 104.99Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC

Provisional

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 9.64Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11351, 7577, 3527

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11351, 7577, 3527

Auto

17.2 17%

Teleop

59.0 58%

Endgame

25.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4355, 3158, 7037

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4355, 3158, 7037

Auto

26.9 21%

Teleop

63.5 50%

Endgame

37.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.4pts

Blue projected score136pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.5
Score range: 77–163
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.8Season APEX264.2

17.2Auto26.9

59Teleop63.5

25.4Endgame37.6

66Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	26
teleop	75	72
endgame	7	32
foul	0	0
total	109	130

Result

Final score

109 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 5.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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