Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.28 – 197.3

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 92.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.2 ±17

8290Jaegers60 - Peñoles

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 5.06Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

10562STEAMex Scorpions

Provisional

Season APEX 53.9Event APEX -7.36Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7725PrepaTec - NUTS & VOLTS

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 50.58Rank 20Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.4 ±17.3

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 156.69Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4355Samurai Code - Peñoles - John Deere

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 32.46Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 8.15Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8290, 10562, 7725

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8290, 10562, 7725

Auto

14.8 30%

Teleop

33.8 69%

Endgame

0.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4400, 4355, 8105

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 4355, 8105

Auto

33.9 17%

Teleop

122.9 63%

Endgame

37.8 19%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score48.3pts

Blue projected score197.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -149
Score range: 25–220
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 128.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.2Season APEX375.4

14.8Auto33.9

33.8Teleop122.9

0.2Endgame37.8

76Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	8
teleop	108	128
endgame	55	75
foul	10	20
total	200	231

Result

Final score

200 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 92.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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