Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.69 – 91.78

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.3 ±17.5

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 75.69Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6896CABOTS - Fresnillo PLC - Conalep Caborca

Provisional

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 4.29Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4735Prepa Tecmilenio - DEROF - Peñoles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 20.71Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.2 ±19.7

3527PrepaTec - Balam Esmeralda

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 56.52Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11040Aria STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 22.5Event APEX 12.37Rank 46Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

8291Golden Yellow Experience - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 22.89Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3526, 6896, 4735

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3526, 6896, 4735

Auto

24.4 27%

Teleop

41.3 45%

Endgame

25.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3527, 11040, 8291

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3527, 11040, 8291

Auto

13.3 15%

Teleop

48.7 56%

Endgame

25.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.7pts

Blue projected score91.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.9
Score range: 69–124
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.3Season APEX147.2

24.4Auto13.3

41.3Teleop48.7

25.6Endgame25.5

31Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	16
teleop	48	36
endgame	16	40
foul	0	45
total	101	137

Result

Final score

101 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 22.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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