Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.95 – 39.55

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±18.4

7653Minebots 7653 - Fresnillo PLC -CECyTE 18 Ciénega

Provisional

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 4.53Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11031Golden STEAMex

Provisional

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 7.55Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 125.87Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.3 ±18.8

5526Type C - Peñoles

Season APEX 77.4Event APEX 7.96Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8266Owlbot - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 14.63Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6483Prepa Tecmilenio - CHARGER

Provisional

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 16.96Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7653, 11031, 3158

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7653, 11031, 3158

Auto

27.5 20%

Teleop

89.3 65%

Endgame

21.4 15%

Strengths

· 3158 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5526, 8266, 6483

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5526, 8266, 6483

Auto

17.7 41%

Teleop

15.1 35%

Endgame

10.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138pts

Blue projected score39.6pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.4
Score range: 17–161
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.3Season APEX181.3

27.5Auto17.7

89.3Teleop15.1

21.4Endgame10.8

1Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	9
teleop	84	6
endgame	53	9
foul	5	15
total	174	39

Result

Final score

174 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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