Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.3 – 276.46

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.9 ±17.5

7037Jeunes D'Argent - FresnilloPLC

Provisional

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -8.9Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9513Circuit Crew 9513 - Caterpillar

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 30.08Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 80

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 45.12Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439 ±15.6

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 130.12Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7687Corcebots - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 18.07Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9301PrepaTec - MechRams

Season APEX 134.6Event APEX 128.27Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7037, 9513, 4603

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7037, 9513, 4603

Auto

9.3 15%

Teleop

33.2 53%

Endgame

20.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4403, 7687, 9301

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4403, 7687, 9301

Auto

50.2 18%

Teleop

177.3 64%

Endgame

48.4 18%

Strengths

· 4403 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66.3pts

Blue projected score276.5pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -210.2
Score range: 43–299
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.9Season APEX439

9.3Auto50.2

33.2Teleop177.3

20.6Endgame48.4

43Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	50
teleop	25	104
endgame	9	63
foul	10	5
total	73	222

Result

Final score

73 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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