Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.99 – 76.53

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.6 ±18.8

4731MONARCH-E

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 52.5Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8105Apollo Black Cat - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 8.28Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7577VELABOTS - Peñoles

Provisional

Season APEX 32.1Event APEX 31.21Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163 ±20.2

9499KANARITECH - FRESNILLO PLC

Provisional

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 40.62Rank 18Record 5-4-1Status provisionalConfidence 74

4977Iron Lion

Provisional

Season APEX 36.4Event APEX 26.47Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11380CECYBOTS - Peñoles

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 9.44Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4731, 8105, 7577

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4731, 8105, 7577

Auto

11.8 13%

Teleop

47.9 54%

Endgame

29.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9499, 4977, 11380

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9499, 4977, 11380

Auto

8.8 11%

Teleop

43.8 55%

Endgame

26.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92pts

Blue projected score76.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.5
Score range: 54–115
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.6Season APEX163

11.8Auto8.8

47.9Teleop43.8

29.8Endgame26.4

29Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	9
teleop	43	53
endgame	11	29
foul	0	5
total	70	96

Result

Final score

70 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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